Cost-optimal pathways towards net-zero chemicals and plastics based on a circular carbon economy

Without disruptive change, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from fossil production of chemicals and plastics will double by 2050. The transition to net-zero GHG requires a concerted strategy for the whole chemical industry due its integrated supply chains. A cost analysis is needed determine required investments design carbon-pricing incentives. Here, we present cost-optimal investment pathways global using bottom-up process model that captures complexity industry. To accomplish net-zero, capital expenditures need increase 36-51 % over next 30 years. In contrast, total annualized could be similar (+4 %) fossil-based production. Net-zero costs rely on availability renewable electricity biomass. At same time, high recycling rates are key keeping resource demands low reducing sensitivity prices.